https://kyivindependent.com/national/kyivans-hide-in-subways-as-russian-forces-bombard-the-capital/

https://meduza.io/feature/2022/03/02/protesty-protiv-voyny-zaprescheny-v-rossii-no-rossiyane-nashli-sposob-vyskazat-nesoglasie-s-putinym

« If at the start Putin was trying to go for a quick decapitation of Ukrainian leadership and installation of a pro-Russian leader (eg Medvedchuk), that seems completely unrealistic now (if it ever were) since he has pretty much turned the entire Ukrainian population against Russia
He also doesn't have the time to engage in a brutal occupation given the internal pressures that are already starting to materialize inside Russia

A number of Russian oligarchs, actors, TV personalities, etc are coming out against this war on a scale we really haven't seen since at least the First Chechen War in the 1990s
The unpopularity of this war inside Russia (not to mention the universal international outrage) is going to multiply dramatically with each coming day (along with casualties)

Thus, Putin is going to need a resolution to the war in the next few weeks or it will create serious problems for him domestically

Putin also can't pull back now without losing face - having talked about Ukraine (with its mythical nuclear weapons) as an existential threat to Russia. Now that he has already incurred the severe economic sanctions costs and diplomatic isolation, he has to show something for it
Putin's only hope now is likely to rapidly unleash utter brutality on the Ukrainian people (which he has already started on by shooting MLRS rockets into Kharkiv and other cities) in order to get major concessions from Zelensky in the negotiations

Putin's minimum bar for a negotiated solution now would likely be Ukraine conceding Crimea to Russia, agreement to never join NATO and EU and some form of demilitarization (eg. no NATO infrastructure in Ukraine)
His problem is that it's highly unlikely that Zelensky and the rest of the Ukrainian leadership would accept these conditions so the war and the insurgency that will follow it can drag out for a long time
And the longer it goes on, the more precarious Putin's position will become domestically. A palace coup is going to become increasingly likely over time
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497966928815603715

Of course, tragically, it will also mean tens of thousands of dead civilians and unimaginable destruction in Ukraine

END »

L'autre thread linké : https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497966928815603715

« For the first time in 22 years, I am actually starting to believe that Putin’s hold on power may be on shaky ground. Not because of some Plpeople’s uprising—that’s a fanciful dream—but because there is now a small but non-zero chance of a palace coup Discussion

The economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation of Russia is going to be very severe and will impact not just the well-known oligarchs, but many in the intelligence and military circles who have been personally enriching themselves under Putin’s regime for decades

What’s more is they now realize that the sanctions will not end no matter what happens in Ukraine now while Putin is in power. That is why personal sanctions on him were so symbolically important

Putin has also physically isolated himself to extreme extent due to his COVID fears (there is a theory that he is also unvaxxed which is contributing to his fear of getting sick)

So one can see a scenario where some people from the siloviki faction will decide that they’ve had enough of the old man and it’s time to put him out to pasture and try to get a detente with the West that is now all but impossible under Putin’s rule

Still a very small chance that this will actually happen but it is much higher than it was before February 24th

END »

Des tweets qui vont dans le même sens : https://twitter.com/anfnl/status/1498599787947597826

« J'ai quitté hier la Russie, où m'a paranoïa m'empêchait de rien écrire publiquement sur Twitter. J'ai quitté un pays sidéré, du moins dans ses deux grandes villes, comme si l'énergie vitale avait été soufflée d'un coup par l'onde de choc des bombes sur Kiev.

Cette attaque sur l'Ukraine était impensable pour la plupart des Russes, personne n'y croyait jusqu'à il y a encore trois jours. Aujourd'hui le sentiment dominant à Moscou et Saint-Pétersbourg est le désespoir et la résignation. Comme si un proche venait de mourir.

Et ce proche qui vient de mourir, c'est l'avenir. On ne ne peut que prier que de ce désespoir et dans un dernier sursaut naisse quelque chose. C'est loin d'être sûr ou même probable. »

À contrario, j'ai vu passer des sondages qui disaient que ~70% de la population russe était favorable. Mais bon, je me souviens pu d'où venaient ces sondages (et j'ai pas fait de recherches sur le coup) donc ça vaut ce que ça vaut et la méfiance reste de mise, surtout si ils sont liés d'une manière ou d'une autre au gouvernement russe.

💔

EDIT : https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/24/ukraine-people-flee-russia-attack-pets/

« Mom, I'm in Ukraine. There is a real war raging here. I am afraid. We are bombing all of the cities, together. Even targeting civilians. We were told that they would welcome us and they are falling under our armored vehicles, throwing themselves under the wheels and not allowing us to pass. They call fascists. Mam, this is so hard. »

Une autre traduction donnée dans les commentaires : « Mom, I'm in Ukraine. It is a real war here. I'm scared, we are shelling everything, even civilians. They told us that they would welcome us, but they are stopping our equipment by their bodies and did not allow us to drive. They call us fascists. Mom it's very hard »

EDIT : On peut légitimement se poser la question de la véracité du truc. Mais au vue de ce que j'ai pu lire à droite et à gauche sur différents réseaux ces derniers jours, ça me parait pas déconnant, même si c'est peut-être pas représentatif de l'état d'esprit de l'armée russe.

En promo actuellement, Linux, macOS, Windows, consoles, mobiles.
Leur communiqué mentionne que c'est valable pour toutes les plateformes et pour tous les stores.
GOG a l'air de soutenir l'initiative en reversant également leurs bénéfices à la croix rouge ukrainienne ( https://twitter.com/GOGcom/status/1496924189445566468 )

https://www.gog.com/game/this_war_of_mine_complete_edition
https://store.steampowered.com/app/282070/This_War_of_Mine/
https://twitter.com/11bitstudios/status/1496904408344449027